We frequently hear of comparisons of the world’s current trajectory with that of Victorian Britain, in the sense that we’re witnessing a rapid and unprecedented acceleration of technological progress, innovation and change - but how close are the actual parallels, and where do they diverge?
The Victorian era produced staggering levels of ingenious breakthroughs, such as railways, telegraphs, steamships, mass industrialisation and electrical experimentation, all of which resulted from an enormous collective-transformative force channelled through pioneering action.
Such advances meant a new type of question was being asked e.g. “How do we turn radical new ideas into practical systems?” Trailblazing scientists and engineers excelled at exactly that.
The era wasn’t merely inventive; it systematised invention. The result was a civilisation obsessed with building - resulting in systems that reshaped society. Railways connected cities, telegraphs connected continents and steamships connected empires.
The age had a profound belief that human ingenuity could solve problems and improve civilisation, and this is where I see some fascinating parallels with our era i.e. the 2020s.
Take for example, the zeitgeist technologies of our times:-
Artificial intelligence
Robotics
Biotechnology
Space exploration
Digital networks
The Victorians built the infrastructure of the industrial age. We however, may be building the infrastructure of the intelligence age.
The Victorian era’s dominant question was “What can machines do?”
Our era’s question increasingly appears to be “What can intelligence do?”
To put in more simple terms, we appear to be building ‘cognitive infrastructure.’ Pulling out the proverbial crystal ball, I expect that over the coming decade we can expect further experiments by idealistic tycoons in new frontiers, such as space exploration and individual creators wielding as yet unheard of extraordinary tools that likely seem unfathomable now.
Therefore, in conclusion - when future historians look back at the Victorian age, they won’t necessarily remember the arguments people had about steam power. They will remember the railways, the bridges, the telegraphs and the institutions that emerged from it.
Likewise, I suspect that when people look back on the period between say, 2025 and 2040, they won’t be particularly interested in which AI model had the most parameters or which technology company briefly held the highest valuation.
They will ask a different question…
They will ask what humanity chose to do with the extraordinary new capabilities suddenly placed in its hands.
The Victorians built infrastructure for moving people, goods and information, whereas we are beginning to build infrastructure for moving knowledge, judgement and perhaps even intelligence itself.
And so the question facing each of us is not whether this transformation is coming. Spoiler alert: it’s already here.
The question is: what role will we play in it? Will we merely consume these new capabilities, or will we help shape how they are used?
Because every great age eventually asks its citizens for something. The Industrial Age asked people to build. The Information Age asked people to connect.
Perhaps the age now unfolding before us is asking us to become wiser?
If that is true, then the most important technology of the next twenty years may not be artificial intelligence at all.
It may be human judgement.
As always, all thoughts and comments are most welcome. Set up some time with me here if you’d like to discuss further.